DTN Midday Grain Comments 04/22 11:34
Grain Futures Shooting for the Moon at Midday
Corn trade is limit higher at midday up 25 cents, soybeans are 37 to 39
cents higher and wheat 21 to 28 cents higher.
David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market is mixed with the Dow off 55 points. The U.S. Dollar
Index has worked 0.16 higher off the lows. Interest rate products are mixed.
Energies are firmer with crude up $0.20. Livestock trade is mixed. Precious
metals are weaker with gold down $11.
Corn trade is 25 cents higher again with fresh highs scored yet again and
spillover from strong soybean action, dry weather in parts of Brazil and
expected feed grain demand coming forward, and fear of missing out, pulling
buyers in. Ethanol margins remain strong with ethanol trading at the highest
level in quite some time. The cool weather should start to end near term with
bigger rains expected into early May, while South America continues to worry on
the double-crop corn ahead of pollination. Corn basis continues to hold firm
throughout the belt. Weekly export sales were soft at 387,500 metric tons old
crop and 29,500 of new crop. On the May contract, chart resistance is going to
start of $6.60 but little has slowed trade this week, with support the prior
high at $6.11.
Soybeans are 36 to 38 cents higher with trade walking through the $15.00
area overnight with oil scoring new highs as well leading the charge. Meal is
$7.00 to $8.00 higher and oil is 2.50 cents higher and locked limit. Active
trade will likely continue ahead of option expiration with overbought
conditions in play for the end of the week, keeping volatility higher. The cool
weather will limit early planting and early development in the U.S., which will
likely continue to limit sellers near term, but warmer and wet weather should
replace cool temps short term. South American harvest will continue to wrap up
in Brazil in the near term while shipping continues. Weekly export sales were
64,300 metric tons of old crop, 315,300 of new crop, 124,300 of old meal, 8,200
of new meal, and oil was 5,700 metric tons. On the May soybean chart, support
is at the 10-day at $14.18 with resistance at the fresh high of $15.39.
Wheat trade is 30 to 32 cents higher at midday following the lead of the row
crops and MATIF wheat as the last day of cold air passes. The down trend in the
dollar is supportive for exports with trade hanging at the lower end of the
range. KC has widened back to a 42-cent discount to Chicago with Minneapolis
now 6 cents above Chicago. Weekly export sales were decent at 240,200 metric
tons of old, and 373,800 of new. KC May on the chart has support at the 50-day
at $6.07, with resistance the fresh high scored at $6.66 Thursday.
David Fiala can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
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